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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 13th, 2015–Jan 14th, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Don't let yourself become complacent. Avalanche activity has decreased, but the Dec 17 surface hoar is still triggerable and very large avalanches are possible.

Weather Forecast

Today will be a mix of sun and cloud, with an alpine high of -5 and light westerly winds. Wed will be similar but with more sun and an inversion will mean warmer temps in the alpine with a high of -2. The next weather system will arrive later on Thursday, bringing increasing cloud and flurries. Up to 20cm are expected by the end of Friday.

Snowpack Summary

A sun crust up to 2cm thick is present on steep solar aspects. A cohesive slab sits over the Dec 17 surface hoar, which is down 60cm-100cm. Crust/facet layers are present just below the Dec 17 layer with varying thicknesses depending on aspect and elevation. The Nov 9 crust is a 30cm basal layer close to or on the ground.

Avalanche Summary

Two size 2 natural avalanches were observed yesterday from steep north facing terrain. On the weekend there was a size 2.0 skier triggered avalanche in Loop Brook area. It was on an east aspect moraine feature, at 1700m, failing down ~60cm on the Dec 17 surface hoar layer 4-6mm in size, and was 50m wide and 100m long.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

The Dec 17 surface hoar is still a major concern. It has become spotty, but is still reactive in areas where it has not already avalanched. This makes it harder to predict but it is possible to trigger large avalanches where it exists.
Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.Good group management is essential to manage current conditions safely.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3