Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 8th, 2022 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Loose Wet.

Avalanche Canada cgarritty, Avalanche Canada

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Wednesday brings dramatic warming to the region with freezing levels jumping to 3300 metres. Expect recent snow accumulations to shed from steep slopes increasingly easily as the day heats up.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Tuesday night: Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing less than 5 cm of new snow. Light to moderate west winds. Freezing level remaining near 1000 metres.

Wednesday: Diminishing cloud, possibly remaining overcast. Moderate to strong northwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around +3 with freezing levels rising to 3300 metres.

Thursday: Sunny with valley cloud below 1200 metres. Moderate to strong northwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around +1 with freezing levels over 3000 metres.

Friday: Sunny. Light northeast winds. Treeline high temperatures around +5 with freezing levels to 2700 metres.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported in the region over the past few days. A MIN report from Saturday gives a sense of the wind slab problem we've been managing over the past week, although at that time it was quite a bit more reactive.

Looking forward to Wednesday, dramatic warming will take hold in the region and bring concern for wet loose avalanches back to centre stage.

Snowpack Summary

By Wednesday morning, few cm of new snow from Tuesday night should bury thin surface crusts that can be found on all aspects at treeline and below as well as on solar aspects in the alpine. 

Beneath the surface, up to 20 cm of moist snow from Friday exists at treeline and below. Above this elevation it fell as dry snow. This overlies a melt freeze crust that likely extends to the top of treeline. 

Below this crust 20 to 60 cm of dry snow sits above another thick and supportive crust that extends to mountain top. At upper treeline and alpine, facets and surface hoar may be found above this crust.

The middle and base of the snowpack are well settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for unstable snow on specific terrain features, especially when the snow is moist or wet.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Problems

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Wet loose avalanches will become increasingly likely as freezing levels jump to over 3000 metres on Wednesday. Avalanches will be most likely to occur on steep slopes and with human triggers. High elevations where dry snow hasn't yet seen the effects of warming are the greatest concern.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 1.5

Valid until: Feb 9th, 2022 4:00PM