Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 7th, 2022 4:19PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Dry.

Conrad Janzen,

Little Yoho.

15 to 30+ cm of new snow with increasing wind has bumped the hazard up over the last 24 hrs. This was more snow than expected, so depending on what happens with the weather overnight we could see a period of HIGH hazard in the alpine on Sunday.

Summary

Weather Forecast

The precipitation should slow Friday night as a ridge starts to build into the area. Temperatures will fall into the -15 to -25 C range at treeline on Saturday with some flurries expected during the day. Alpine winds will increase into the moderate to strong range and stay that way through the day.

Snowpack Summary

15-30+ cm new snow with winds increasing to strong out of the S-SW on Friday. Wind and storm slabs building at treeline and in alpine areas as that loose snow gets blown around. These slabs may bond poorly to the underlying facets formed by the cold snap. The Dec 2 crust/facet interface is down 80-130 cm.

Avalanche Summary

Size 1-2 loose dry and wind slab avalanches were reported by local ski areas on Friday. These were triggered by ski cutting and explosive work. A few loose dry natural observations and a natural avalanche on Pilsner, Mt Dennis that dusted the Field back road was also reported. We expect more avalanche activity occurred but visibility was limited.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Saturday

Problems

Storm Slabs

15-30+ cm of new snow with increasing winds are building touchy wind and storm slabs, especially in leeward loaded areas. These could be easy to trigger with the cold facets underneath. Stick to ridges and moderate angled slopes until things bond.

Storm snow is forming reactive slabs.
Watch for surface cracking and stiffer surface layers of snow. Avoid wind loaded terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Loose Dry

The new snow will be sluffing far and fast in steep terrain due to the faceted snowpack underneath the recent snow. This could result in larger loose dry avalanches in steep terrain, gullies and chutes.

Good group management is essential to manage current conditions safely.
On steep slopes, pull over periodically or cut into a new line to manage sluffing.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 1.5

Valid until: Jan 8th, 2022 4:00PM