Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 22nd, 2022 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Cornices and Loose Wet.

Avalanche Canada ahanna, Avalanche Canada

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There is a lot of uncertainty as to how the snowpack is going to react to the sustained heat and sun. Loose wet avalanches and cornice failures are expected to become more likely each day. During times of uncertainty, conservative terrain selection is essential. 

Summary

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather. Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

The region now sits under the warm ridge of high pressure which is expected to persist into next week bringing very high freezing levels and sun. 

Saturday night: Clear, moderate NW wind, freezing level 3300 m.

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud, moderate NW wind, freezing levels around 3000 m dropping to around 2500 m by Sunday night. 

Monday: Sunny, light NW wind, freezing levels around 2700 m.

Tuesday: Sunny, light NW wind, freezing levels around 2700 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity have been reported over the last few days but on Thursday, glide cracks were reported to be growing in size, likely from the persistent warm temperatures and rain event. 

If you head out into the mountains, please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temperatures are starting to melt a thick crust formed by previous heavy rain saturating the surface snow to mountain top. Below the crust, the snow is moist down 50-100 cm where several old crust are now breaking down. At the highest elevations around Squamish, you may find up to 15 cm of new snow from the recent storm. 

Around 150 to 200 cm deep, weak faceted grains may sit above a melt freeze crust that formed during the cold spell in late December. Reports suggest that the snowpack has been bonding well to these layers. The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.
  • Even small cornices may have enough mass to be destructive and deadly.

Problems

Cornices

An icon showing Cornices

Large cornices around ridge crests are expected to become weak during the warming event this weekend. With each day of warming, cornice failures will become more likely. 

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

2 - 3

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

As the warm conditions and sun persist, loose wet avalanches will become more likely and potentially larger. Extra caution is necessary around steep south facing slopes when the sun is strong. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Valid until: Jan 23rd, 2022 4:00PM