Avalanche Forecast

Good

Thursday: Expect a mix of sun and cloud. There is a chance of low level stratus cloud close to the coast. Temperatures will be cool in the morning, but warm to around -3 with the sun’s influence. Expect light northwest winds and no precipitation.Friday: Clouds should build overnight and linger through the day. Expect flurries, focussed primarily on west facing terrain. 5-10cm are possible. Winds should turn westerly and pick up to moderate/strong values with alpine temperatures reaching -5.Saturday: Clouds linger but precipitation dissipates. Winds turn southwesterly and ease with alpine temperatures reaching around -1.

The region has seen a natural avalanche cycle. Natural slabs and cornice falls up to size 3.0 have been reported, predominantly on north-northeasterly terrain. Many loose wet avalanches up to size 2.0 have occurred below treeline, where the recent precipitation fell as rain. Both explosive and rider controlled avalanches have also been observed up to size 2.5, predominantly in wind loaded areas. Some areas are reporting reverse loading from changing wind directions and have seen windslab failures in southeast facing terrain features.

Recent weather has been relatively benign, with precipitation pulses giving incremental loading (5-10cm at a time). Relatively light winds have accompanied these snowfall pulses with some stronger outflow winds closer to the coast.Previous strong southwest winds gave intense snow transport and cornice growth. Extensive windslabbing in lee zones and behind ridges in the alpine and treeline was the result. Some areas saw swirling winds resulting in some cross and reverse loading on southeasterly features. These significant windslabs are now lightly buried.In the upper snowpack, a melt-freeze crust buried on Jan. 17 remains a concern. Recent compression tests show both resistent and sudden planar results and an extended column test shows a continued propensity for propagation if the layer was triggered. The Jan. 17th crust is down 60-100cm. It is certainly worth keeping this layers on your radar in regards to distribution and reactivity for the short term. The mid and lower snowpack is generally well settled and strong.