Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Saturday: Sunny with light winds. Alpine temperature near -5, dropping overnight.Sunday: Cloud building during the day. Light snow, starting late in the day. Light winds. Alpine temperature near -4.Monday: Light snow. Moderate S winds. Alpine temperature near -4.

Many skier-triggered and skier-remote avalanches of size 1-2.5 have been reported this week, with the bulk of events failing on the March 9th surface hoar layer down around 50 cm. Numerous other skier-remote (from up to 800 m away) avalanches of size 2-2.5 also failed just to the NE of the forecast region, on the same layer. A very large (size 3.5) avalanche was triggered in Cherry Bowl in the Shames backcountry on Sunday. Click here for a full report. These slides illustrate the ongoing potential for surprising, deep and destructive releases.Naturally-triggered wind slabs and loose moist avalanches have also been observed in response to wind loading/ sunshine.

Recent new snow overlies surface hoar, crusts and old wind slabs. New wind slabs have formed lee to SW to NW winds. The surface hoar (buried March 9th; now down about 40-60 cm) is well-developed and fairly widespread at all elevations. Whumfing and remote-triggering of avalanches indicate that this layer is volatile. Professionals are taking a very cautious approach to terrain selection with this in mind. A second surface hoar layer, buried on March 18, is also problematic in some areas. The mid snowpack is generally well settled and strong. Cornices are large and untrustworthy, especially when the sun is out.