Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Friday: Cloudy with 5-10 cm of new snow. The freezing level is near 600-800 m and winds are moderate from the SW. Saturday: Mainly cloudy with sunny breaks and a chance of flurries. The freezing level is near 600 m and winds ease to light. Sunday: Mainly cloudy with a chance of flurries. The freezing level is around 400 m and winds are moderate from the southeast.

Explosives control in areas near Bear Pass and northeast of Terrace produced numerous slab avalanches, size 2-3.5, likely failing on the January 9th interface. Some had very impressive propagations. Other areas reported small skier triggered size 1 slabs and some remotely triggered slabs. Thursday's weather may not have been enough to tip off a widespread natural avalanche cycle. Rider triggering and triggering from a distance remain a concern. The size and likelihood of avalanches will be on the rise as the slab continues to develop with more snow, wind, and milder temperatures.

Thursday's weather affected the Northern part of the region more with some areas receiving up to 20 cm of new snow. Southern sections saw less snow (around 5 cm), but moderate-strong S-SE winds and milder temperatures were common throughout the region. This puts the January 9th surface hoar/facet layer down 50-70 cm in most places. Approximately 10 cm below this weakness you might find the Dec. 26/31 surface hoar layer. Reports of remote triggering, whumpfing, and sudden "pops" shears are all indications that both these layers could propagate well if triggered. Deeper persistent weaknesses buried in December have the potential to wake-up to heavy loading, rapid warming, or avalanches stepping-down.