Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 24th, 2014 8:51AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs and Loose Wet.

ccampbell, Avalanche Canada

South Coast.

Check out the latest blog post on deep persistent slab problems.

Summary

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Saturday: Sunny with possible morning valley fog. Light alpine winds. Freezing level as high as 3200m with alpine temperature reaching +10 C, but cooler in valley bottoms. Sunday: Sunny with cloudy periods and possible morning valley fog. Light northerly alpine winds. Freezing level as high as 2700m with alpine temperature reaching +5 C, but cooler in valley bottoms. Monday: Sunny. Light northerly alpine winds. Freezing level around 1200m.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from the Duffy Lake area on Wednesday include two natural Size 2.5 deep persistent slab avalanches on a SE facing alpine slope.

Snowpack Summary

The surface snow is likely undergoing a melt-freeze cycle on all but high elevation shady aspects, while the entire snowpack may even be trending isothermal at lower elevations. On shady aspects expect to find faceted powder; however, in exposed areas winds have scoured windward slopes, left deep drifts on lee aspects, and and sculpted sastrugi. The record low snowpack is generally well settled and strong; however, a facet/crust combo from late November down approximately 100-120 cm at treeline and alpine elevations continues to give sudden results in snowpack tests. Facets and depth hoar at the base of the snowpack remain a concern on slopes with a shallow and variable snowpack in the Duffey Lake and Chilcotin areas.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Particularly a concern on shallow rocky southern aspects with heavy triggers. Warm temperature and sun-exposure are expected to increase the likelihood of triggering these facets deep in the snowpack. Cornice falls could also act as natural triggers.

Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.>Avoid convex rolls at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

3 - 6

Loose Wet

Generally small, slow, and often limited to extreme cliffy terrain; however, these dense avalanches can easily knock you off your feet and take you for a ride.

Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 25th, 2014 2:00PM