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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 1st, 2016–Mar 2nd, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

Give the snowpack a chance to settle and adjust to the new load. Pick conservative terrain especially if the wind is blowing

Confidence

High - Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY: heavy snow continues overnight with another 10 expected by the end of the day, mainly light southwesterly winds, 1800m freezing level. THURSDAY: 10cm of new snow, moderate southwest winds, 1800m freezing level. FRIDAY: heavy snow, strong southerly winds, 1800m freezing level.

Avalanche Summary

Isolated artificially and naturally triggered storm slab, wind slab and cornice avalanches continue to be reported. Cornices are large and fragile, and may fail under the weight of a person. Natural avalanche activity is expected to peak overnight on Tuesday, although human triggering will remain likely through the forecast period.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 30cm of new snow and strong winds have formed widespread fresh storm slabs. The upper snowpack sits above a crust that was reported on all aspects and elevations before the weekend. Isolated pockets of surface hoar were also reported in high north facing terrain that stayed cool prior to the storm. The mid-pack is generally well settled. A layer of surface hoar buried in early January can now be found down 1-2 m. In most places it is thought to be capped by a thick widespread crust. However, in the north of the region it has produced recent isolated hard sudden planar failures in snow pit test from shallow areas.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Heavy snow and wind are resulting in a prolonged natural avalanche cycle. Human triggered avalanches are likely on steep unsupported slopes and in wind loaded features. Watch out for overhead hazards like cornices.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets >Avoid steep, open slopes.>Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3