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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 12th, 2019–Dec 15th, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Waterton Lakes.

This is a great time to make conservative decisions as we are getting acquainted with early season persistent weak layers. The Akamina Parkway is closed for construction until December 21.

Weather Forecast

Friday: Cloudy with scattered flurries, up to 5cm of snow. Moderate NW to W winds, alpine high -7.

Saturday: Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Light west winds, Alpine high -12.

Sunday: Cloudy with sunny periods and light to moderate westerly winds. Alpine high -12.

Snowpack Summary

15-25cm previous storm snow coupled with strong to extreme west winds has formed new slabs in the alpine and treeline. A melt freeze crust facet combo formed at the start of the season sits at the bottom of the snowpack. Though unlikely to be triggered by people, it is not impossible and we have seen other avalanches stepping down to this layer.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanche activity has been seen in the park, but recently we have seen windslabs stepping down to early season weak layers on east aspects in the alpine, and surrounding ski areas have been getting results to size 2 with explosives.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Strong to extreme winds have stripped fetches in the alpine, and new wind slabs exist at treeline and above. These will begin to settle as the weekend progresses.

  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets. Be aware of wide variation in snowpack depth
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Melt freeze crusts and facets from early season snowfalls are lurking at the bottom of the snowpack. Windslabs have been stepping down to this layer, and it may be possible for a person to trigger an avalanche in the right (wrong?) spot.

  • Avoid thin rocky or unsupported terrain features.
  • If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3