Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

The arctic ridge of high pressure dominates conditions for the forecast period. Clear and dry conditions with cold arctic air scheduled to move back into the region. Strong arctic outflow winds have already begun in the north and will move into the south by the coming weekend.Wednesday night:  Freezing level at valley bottom, ridge top winds light-variable.Thursday: Cloudy periods, freezing level around 1800m, ridge top winds, light, gusting to 30Km/h.Friday:  Cloudy with flurries and a trace of precipitation. freezing level at valley bottom, ridge top winds from the North,15-20 Km/hSaturday:  Sunny with cloudy periods, freezing level at valley bottom, light ridge top winds from the SE.

Natural and skier accidental avalanches are still occurring up to size 2  in the forecast area, and as temperatures warm up may increase in frequency. Cornices failures may also occur with the warming temperatures and will certainly add to the hazard.Conditions are ideal for human triggering right now and we have received numerous reports of skier triggered and skier accidental avalanches, many of which have released quite deep in the snowpack. Neighboring areas have reported avalanches that were remotely triggered from a considerable distance. Operators are listing warming temperatures and cornice failures as a considerable hazard.

A cohesive slab with an average thickness of 1.3m sits on a nasty persistent weak layer (surface hoar/facet/crust combo) that was formed during the preceding month of cold, dry weather. This weak layer is widespread at all elevations and aspects, and is creating problems even in previously skied terrain. Large settlements and whumpfs have been reported at all elevations. We have received numerous reports of remotely-triggered avalanches from as far as 500m away which indicates a high likelihood of large propagation within the weak layer. Touchy conditions are expected to remain in place longer than we're normally accustomed to. In many wind loaded areas, a slab of up to 2m thickness overlies the persistent weak layer creating conditions for very large avalanches.Weak basal facets and depth hoar have been noted in reports from some areas, but triggering has now become unlikely. For the most part, the mid and lower snowpack are strong and well consolidated.