Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Sunday

Saturday should be a carbon copy of friday in terms of weather.  Mainly cloudy, moderate westerly winds and light flurries with only minor accumulations.  On Sunday another storm is forecast to hit the region.  At this time precipitation amounts are close to 25cm with strong winds and again warm temperatures.  We can expect the avalanche danger to increase if the forecast holds true.

A few recent avalanches up to sz 2.5 were observed initiating in Alpine areas on N and E aspects.  These slides started as dry windslabs, then ran down into the rain soaked snow and ran to the top of their normal runouts.  The majority of avalanches observed were 30-40cm thick, 60-100m wide and ran 200-300m. 

Cooler temperatures moved in overnight and we finally saw the rain begin to turn to snow.  Below 2200m the snowpack was rain soaked, lost lots of mass but it now beginning to re-freeze.  Above this elevation the top 5-20cm of the snowpack was moist and isothermal.  So far it seems as if 2600m was a high as the rain fell and it was snow above.  So, we now have what is being called the November rain crust buried down 10-15cm up to 2600m.  Above this elevation the new snow and winds have combined to build new windslabs in open areas.  These new windslabs will be reactive to a skiers weight so avoid steeper areas until the snowpack has some time to settle and strengthen.