Avalanche Forecast

Low - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Friday

THURSDAY Night: Cranbrook and south - Snow, accumulation 15-30 cm possible, light to moderate southeast wind, alpine temperature -9 C.Further north - Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries, light to moderate southeast wind, alpine temperature -9 C.FRIDAY: Flurries, accumulation 5-10 cm , light to moderate southwest wind, alpine temperature -8 CSATURDAY: Flurries, accumulation 5-10 cm, light west wind, alpine temperature -9 CSUNDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light northeast wind, alpine temperature -13 C

Reports on Tuesday and Wednesday include a few wind slab avalanches size 1-2 on north, south and east aspects in the alpine. There were also a few storm slab avalanches reported to size 1 at treeline. Additionally on Wednesday there was a cornice triggered size 3 deep persistent slab reported on a northeast aspect at 2800m.

In much of the region 5-15 cm of recent snow sits above wind-affected snow and/or sugary facets. In the far south of the region (south of Cranbrook) 30-40 cm of new snow that fell Tuesday also sits above wind-affected snow or sugary facets. Beneath this lies two weak layers of surface hoar that were buried at the end of January and mid-January. These layers are around 30 to 60 cm deep. The mid-January layer may be associated with a melt-freeze crust on southerly aspects. These layers are most prominent at treeline and below treeline elevations.The base of the snowpack is composed of weak and sugary faceted grains that overly a melt-freeze crust. This weak layer has produced large and destructive avalanches that are sporadic in nature and very difficult to predict. It is most likely to be triggered from areas where the snowpack is shallow and weak. Rocky alpine bowls, ridge crests, and rocky outcroppings are some examples of terrain features to be wary of. See the Forecaster Blog here for more info on this problem.