Avalanche Forecast

High - The weather pattern is stable

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear / Light, northeasterly winds / Alpine low -21.TUESDAY: Sunny / Light, northeasterly winds / Alpine high -15.WEDNESDAY: Sunny / Light, northeasterly winds / Alpine high -10.THURSDAY: Sunny / Light, northeasterly winds / Alpine high -13.

On Sunday, a natural size 1.5 wind slab was reported on a southwest aspect in the alpine.On Saturday there was a report of a skier triggered size 2 persistent slab avalanche 30-50 cm deep on a northeast aspect in the Dogtooth range. This person was seriously injured after being swept over a 30 m cliff and carried by the avalanche for a total of 650 m. On Wednesday there was a report of a human triggered size 2 persistent slab avalanche in the Gorman Lake area. There is a great MIN report detailing this avalanche here.During the past week there have been numerous reports of persistent slab avalanches. These avalanches are becoming fewer and further between, but they are still being triggered by people and are large enough to have a high consequence.

Depending on location, the snow surface either consists of 15-40 cm of low density snow, wind slabs, or sun crusts on steep south facing terrain. Wind slabs may be found on all aspects due to recent variable wind direction. These buried wind slabs are sitting on facets (sugary snow) which may cause them to remain reactive to human triggers longer than what is typical for this region.Lower down there are two layers of of surface hoar (feathery crystals) that were buried at the end of January and mid-January. These layers are around 30 to 80 cm deep and are most prominent at treeline and below. The surface hoar may sit on a crust on south facing slopes.The base of the snowpack is composed of weak and sugary faceted grains that sit on a crust. This weak layer has produced large and destructive avalanches that are sporadic in nature and very difficult to predict. See the Forecaster Blog here for more information on this problem.