Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Mt Hood.
Back country travel is not recommended in avalanche terrain near and above treeline at Mt Hood on Monday. Conservative decision making will be a good plan in the below treeline and the avalanche forecasts will get refined after new information becomes available on Monday.
Detailed Forecast
Additional showers are expected Tuesday at continued cool temperatures. Showers should generally be fewer and taper by late Tuesday.Â
Moderate west winds at ridge level should persist Tuesday before diminishing late Tuesday.Â
Recent or new wind and storm slabs will remain the main avalanche problems Tuesday in the Mt Hood zone.
New wind slab is mostly likely to be found on N-SE facing slopes. Stiff wind transported snow and snowpack cracking can be good signs of wind slab or storm slab instabilities.
New storm slab is likely in areas where new snow rapidly accumulates for more than several hours.
Cloudy cool conditions Tuesday may limit the possibility of loose wet snow but the sun is gaining power so watch for the possibility of loose wet snow on solar slopes if extended sun breaks occur.Â
The avalanche danger should gradually decrease Tuesday with less wind and slow settlement and stabilization of new snow and fairly cool temperatures.Â
Snowpack Discussion
Weather and Snowpack
Storms have moved across the Northwest at a nearly daily frequency the past few weeks with fluctuating but generally moderate snow levels.
A storm last Wednesday and Thursday caused a warming trend that peaked Wednesday night with rain received at least up to 6600 feet on Mt Hood or just above treeline along with very strong west winds. About 8 inches of snow accumulated on a new crust at Mt Hood for the two days ending Thursday morning.
A front on Saturday caused west-southwest winds and another 4-6 inches of snow at Mt Hood ending Sunday morning.
A deep surface low-pressure system moved across the region Sunday causing very stormy weather.Â
Cool showery weather Monday with continued moderate westerly winds continues to deposit additional snow at lower temperatures.
New storm amounts on Mt Hood range from about 15-30Â inches deposited in the past 36 hours as of Monday evening.
Strong winds and recent storms have created widespread wind and storm slab problems, creating dangerous avalanche conditions.
The mid and lower snow pack at Mt Hood should generally be a stable mix of crusts and layers of moist and rounded snow crystals.
Recent Observations
On Thursday, NWAC pro-observer Laura Green toured in the Mitchell and Heather drainages and found evidence of rain up to at least 6600 feet. A supportable rain crust and rain runnels were observed below 6000'.
The Mt Hood Meadows pro-patrol on Sunday reported stormy conditions with widespread wind and storm slab of 6-12 inches on all aspects in the area, easily triggered by ski cuts and running on the crust buried on Thursday.
On Monday, control performed by Mt. Hood Meadows pro-patrol produced extensive and sensitive wind and storm slab avalanches triggered by ski cuts in lower elevation slopes and explosives in wind loaded terrain. Avalanches were greatest on N-E facing terrain.Â
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Storm Slabs
Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.
Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: South East, South, South West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1