Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 4th, 2014 3:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs, Persistent Slabs and Loose Dry.

matt.mueller, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

When the winds pick up we can expect another cycle to begin. Keep an eye out for quickly changing conditions. Be flexible in your trips and don't hesitate to change plans.

Summary

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

The cold temps will peak tonight with a warming trend slowly moving in for the rest of the week. There is no new snow expected in the immediate future. Only clear skies. The winds will stay out of the north and range in values. They will peak at 70km/hr (3000m) tonight.

Avalanche Summary

Yesterday's large natural avalanches appear to have been limited to a very specific region. A snow study flight today only offered a view of moderate sized avalanches in the alpine storm snow.

Snowpack Summary

A lack of wind has left the storm snow relatively undisturbed at all elevations. The total storm snow amounts to 35cm's near the divide. The interface between new and old snow had a repeatable instability that shows up in stability tests (Compression test moderate(14) sudden planar). The snow beneath the new storm snow varies depending on elevation & aspect. Alpine areas tend to have a windslab and treeline and below has a mix of isolated windslabs and facets. Deeper down the facet/depth hoar combo is still considered weak, despite the travel improving. In every sense of the word, the snowpack is considered to be variable.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Some natural activity noted today in the alpine. Generally the new snow is still unaffected by the light winds. As the winds pick up this problem will become more of a concern. Immediate lee features are of particular concern.

Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

Triggering of this layer may be from a thin, weak area or from a smaller avalanche over whelming the strength of the midpack and stepping down. Large terrain features remain suspect. Full depth avalanches are still very possible.

Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

2 - 6

Loose Dry

The lack of wind is keeping this problem on the radar. In particular, gullies and steep cliffs are a concern. Ice climbers be aware of your position in the terrain and how it may effect you.

Sluffs may trigger deeper instabilities.>Avoid travelling on ledges and cliffs where sluffing may have severe consequences.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Very Likely - Certain

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 5th, 2014 2:00PM