Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Wednesday should be cloudy with sunny periods and isolated wet flurries (possibly rain). Freezing levels will climb to 2600m. Alpine temperatures are expected to reach a high of 2 C.  Ridge-top winds will be out of the north at 20 km/h gusting to 50 km/h.

Several loose wet avalanches up to size 2.0 were observed today in steep alpine terrain on solar aspects. Many of these initiated from shallow rocky areas.

The snowpack is settling under the influence of intense solar radiation and daytime heating. Moist snow observed today on all solar aspects up to mountain top and on northerly aspects up to 2200m. Numerous buried crusts are found on all but sheltered north aspects, and many of these crusts are producing shears in snowpack stability tests in the easy to moderate range. We are also observing consistent shears in the hard range deep in the snowpack on the Jan 6th interface down between 100 and 130cm. The basal layers consist of large depth hoar and facets. Slabs up to 50cm thick are still found in lee and cross-loaded features in the Alpine. Much of the region has a snowpack with a dense mid-pack overlying very weak basal layers which indicates the potential for full depth avalanches, triggered either from a large load (such as a cornice) or from a step-down from an avalanche initiated in the upper snowpack. The snowpack is not yet in typical "spring condition", though it is evolving that way.