Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Cascades - East.
You can trigger avalanches in the recently fallen and drifted snow. Conditions are most dangerous at upper elevations where east winds will form fresh drifts. With cold temperatures and significant snow accumulations in the past 5 days, the snowpack needs time to adjust to the heavy load of new snow.
Discussion
Over the past few days, observers reported multiple triggered and natural avalanches in the Wenatchee Mountains and elsewhere in the zone. Some of these were big enough to bury or kill a person and at least one was triggered remotely. See this observation from Blewett Pass and another from Dirtyface, near Lake Wenatchee.Â
Near to the Cascade Crest and west of Highway 97, you can expect deeper storm totals than in the Wenatchee Mountains and eastern foothills closer to Highway 97 where less snow has accumulated since January 10th. After significant storm totals, deep snow alone can be dangerous, especially near to the Cascade Crest. Deep snow around tree-wells and open creeks can pose a hazard for suffocating. Make sure to travel with a partner and to be aware of the danger (www.deepsnowsafety.org). Expect the coldest temperatures of the winter so far.Â
Snowpack Discussion
January 12th update: In the past week, there have been two fatal avalanche accidents to the east of NWAC's forecast area. One occurred near Kellog, ID and another outside of Baker City, OR. Local avalanche centers will perform accident investigations including final reports. You can find preliminary accident information at avalanche.org.
January 9th, 2020 (The regional synopsis is updated every Thursday @ 6 pm)
As we said Happy New Year and rang in 2020, snow was turning to rain at many trailheads and lower elevation Passes, not exactly the fresh start winter recreationalists had in mind. The snowpack was already looking a little thin throughout the region, especially at lower elevations. Low snow in places like Snoqualmie Pass made backcountry travel difficult and hazardous. NWAC’s snow depth climatology report was showing snow depths 25-64% of normal to kick off the start of 2020.
Things can change quickly in the Pacific Northwest and they did as we entered an extended storm cycle between January 2nd to January 8th. Strong winds, fluctuating temperatures, and heavy precipitation offered few breaks in the weather over this period limiting observations and hampering travel. Despite periods of rain at lower elevations, most areas saw several feet of new snow with big jumps in total snow depths as a westerly storm track strongly favored the West Slopes of the Cascades and the Olympics for the highest precipitation totals.
Location
Total Snow Depth (in) 1/2/20
Total Snow Depth (in) 1/8/20
Hurricane Ridge
31
51
Heather Meadows Mt Baker
55
95
Washington Pass
49
74
Stevens Pass
41
63
Snoqualmie Pass
22
33
Alpental mid-mountain
44
63
Crystal Mt Green Valley
40
66
Paradise Mt Rainier
54
105
White Pass Upper
43
69
Timberline
36
57
Mt Hood Meadows
36
53
Â
We may have started with a shallow snowpack, but most locations increased their snowpack by 70% or more over this storm cycle!
During this extended and impressive storm cycle that included backcountry avalanche warnings, natural avalanches were reported in many areas Jan 6th-7th.
The Stevens Pass area was especially active over the period with over 100(!) avalanche observations made on the 6th and 7th. Professionals reported numerous avalanches in places that they hadn't previously observed avalanches and some paths avalanched multiple times in a 24 hour period. Observers reported a few very large (size D2.5-3) avalanches, originating at upper elevations with deeper crowns that likely formed from wind drifting. Topping off an active couple of days, warming temperatures lead to a widespread loose wet avalanche cycle.
The southern Washington Cascades, the Wentachee Mountains and Mt. Hood either saw less precipitation, warmer temperatures leading to more rain than snow, or some combination of the two and ended up with relatively less active avalanche conditions than areas further north.Â
A large natural avalanche on Rock Mountain near Berne along Hwy 2 east of Stevens Pass that released Jan 6th or 7th. Photo: Josh Hirshberg 1/7/20
Many small storm slabs released in the Crystal backcountry 1/6-1/7. Pinwheels in the photo suggest loose wet avalanche activity occurred when temperatures rose above freezing and snow turned to rain.
Another active and colder weather pattern is on it’s way. Enjoy yourself out there and be sure to check the forecast before heading out. Remember, NWAC is a community-supported avalanche center and when you submit an observation you make the forecast better!
-Peter Moore
It’s getting deeper! Photo: Jeremy Allyn
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
East winds will intensify throughout the day becoming strong enough to drift snow. It will be easiest to trigger avalanches at upper elevations. You may find cross-loading on open slopes in lower terrain, especially near passes and divides. Use caution on leeward, wind-loaded slopes 35 degrees and steeper where you see drifted pillows of snow and thick wind features. Use small test slopes to determine if the snow can slide. Watch for clear signs of the danger like recent avalanches, shooting cracks, blowing snow, and collapses.
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Loose Dry
You can trigger loose avalanches in steep terrain. These avalanches will break near your feet or machine and could be dangerous if you're in the wrong place. Avoid terrain traps like gullies or above cliffs where even a small avalanche could stack up debris or push you into dangerous terrain.
Expect deeper accumulations near the Salmon la Sac, Teanaway, and Icicle drainages. Step, or ride off into untracked snow once in a while, and look for weak, loose snow as you travel. Avalanches could also break within storm layers or beneath all of the storm snow, resulting in a more dangerous slab avalanche. Check the interface (January 10th) beneath the recent snow. If you find weak snow or facets, use extra caution near slopes 35 degrees and steeper.
Release of dry unconsolidated snow. These avalanches typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. Loose Dry avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Dry avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Loose Dry avalanches are usually relatively harmless to people. They can be hazardous if you are caught and carried into or over a terrain trap (e.g. gully, rocks, dense timber, cliff, crevasse) or down a long slope. Avoid traveling in or above terrain traps when Loose Dry avalanches are likely.
Loose Dry avalanche with the characteristic point initiation and fan shape.
Loose dry avalanches exist throughout the terrain, release at or below the trigger point, and can run in densely-treed areas. Avoid very steep slopes and terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells.
Elevations: Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1