Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
A bunch of new snow in the past 24hrs, combined with the uncertainty created by the recently buried Feb. 14th interface, make conservative terrain choices your best bet for safely enjoying the epic skiing that abounds in our area.
Weather Forecast
Unstable air in the wake of yesterday's front, combined with a cold front just to our NE will give unsettled conditions in to the weekend.
Friday: Cloudy with isolated flurries, Alpine High -11 C. Light-moderate SW ridge wind.
Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud, Low -15 C, High -13 C. Moderate W wind.
Sunday: Flurries (4cm). Low -14 C, High -8 C.
Snowpack Summary
New snow (up to 45cm) has formed fresh storm slabs over previously settled storm snow, and a thin suncrust on steep solar aspects. The 80mm of precip, and extreme S'ly winds from early in the week sit on the Feb 14 drought interface; a wind crust in exposed areas near the Pass; buried windslabs, facets, and a thin suncrust as you move East or West.
Avalanche Summary
A spike in wind and snowfall triggered several size 2-3 storm slabs on Mt Tupper and MacDonald on Thursday.
Helicopter control in the West of the park produced several size 3.0 avalanches on N and S/SE aspects Wednesday.
Early in the week a torrent of very large natural and controlled avalanches ran full path to valley bottom.
Confidence
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Up to 45 cm of new snow has formed fresh storm slabs, these will be touchier in exposed areas where they have been stiffened by the wind.
- If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 3
Loose Dry
Expect loose dry avalanches in steep terrain. These may run quicker on steep solar aspects where they sit on a thin suncrust.
- If triggered dry loose point releases can form deeper deposits in terrain traps.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
The 80+ cm of snow we received Monday sits on the February 14th weak layer.
This problem may persist longer in areas where the facets are well preserved, or on steep solar aspects where these is a thin suncrust at this interface.
- Be wary of large open slopes that did not previously avalanche.
- Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5