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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 17th, 2015–Dec 18th, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Northwest Inland.

New snow and forecast strong winds will develop new wind slabs in the alpine and at treeline.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Light snow combined with moderate southerly winds overnight. Expect 3-5 cm by Friday morning and another 2-3 cm during the day. Cloudy with flurries on Saturday. Light snow and strong southwest wind Saturday night and Sunday. Freezing level at valley bottoms for the forecast period.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported. Incremental loading should develop thin new wind slabs on lee aspects.

Snowpack Summary

Shallow early season snowpack with 60 cm at treeline in drier areas like Babine Mountain and 100 cm at treeline in more westerly areas like Ashman. Both Tsai creek and Shedin creek snow pillows are well below average and very close to historical minimums. Shallow usually means weak, and cooler temperatures over a shallow and weak snowpack may mean a chance of facetted crystals near the ground. There may be some lingering surface hoar down 20-30 cm in some areas and I suspect that new surface hoar may be primed for burial by the forecast snow on Thursday.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Incremental loading of a few cm per day with strong winds is expected to develop new wind slabs in the alpine and at treeline.
Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3