It's easy to feel euphoric when the snow is deep, it's sunny, and you're out with your buds. Make conservative decisions Tuesday and watch for signs of the approaching storm.
Summary
Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Wednesday
Weather Forecast
After a clear and cold Monday night clouds should build through the day Tuesday. No precip is expected and winds should be light for most of the day Tuesday. By the time dawn breaks Wednesday it should be snowing and winds will likely be strong to extreme at all elevations. The freezing level is expected to rise to 1600m by Wednesday afternoon while extreme SW winds are raging at ridgetop. Look for 5 to 10cm Wednesday and another 1 to 5cm Wednesday night. The storm should change character Wednesday night as the freezing level climbs to around 2000m. There's an additional 1 to 5mm of water in the forecast for Thursday, this will likely fall as rain below 2100m. The freezing level is expected to remain above 2000m through Friday with small amounts of precipitation each day through the end of the weekend.
Avalanche Summary
Over the weekend we received limited observations of the recent storm cycle which featured natural avalanches to size 4. The details are a bit fuzzy, but it sounds like most of this activity was limited to mid-storm instabilities. I suspect that some of the bigger ones likely stepped down to deeper instabilities, but that's all conjecture. There is a good video of ski cut easily triggering a slab avalanche in seemingly benign terrain on the Bulkley Backcountry Ski Society facebook page too.
Snowpack Summary
The storm produced approximately 30 to 70cm of dry low density snow accompanied by strong to extreme winds out of the E through SE. There are a number of weak layers in our snowpack, this storm has been a good test for all of them. One more day of clear skies should allow some observations into our office. Right now there's a lot of uncertainty about which layers are players, and which interfaces have gone dormant/inactive. I'm curious about all the following layers: The early February surface hoar, (little is known about the distribution of this interface.) The late January crust, probably down 75 to 150cm in the south, likely shallower in the north. The mid-January rain crust (with some spatially spotty surface hoar on top), probably down 100 to 200cm. And finally, the crust/facet combination from November which is near the ground. It's not an easy snowpack to work with, we'd greatly appreciate your observations via the Mountain Information Network.
ghelgeson,
Avalanche Canada
