Avalanche Forecast

Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

  

FRIDAY NIGHT: Few clouds / Light, northwest ridgetop wind / alpine low temperature -14 / Freezing level valley bottom.

SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light, southwest ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature -12 / Freezing level valley bottom.

SUNDAY: Cloudy / Strong, southwest ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature -12 / Freezing level valley bottom.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy / Moderate, west ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature -10 / Freezing level valley bottom.

There have been a couple reports of large avalanches failing on sugary facets near the ground during this past week. These have been triggered by both explosives and heavy snow loading during the last storm. 

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Up to 20 cm of recent snow fell at upper elevations and may sit above a newly formed crust from December 6th. This new snow may have a poor bond to the underlying crust and be reactive to human triggering. Recent strong winds from the southwest may have sifted the new snow onto lee aspects and behind terrain features building isolated wind slabs.

In many treeline and below treeline areas, the combination of above freezing temperatures and rain saturated the entire snowpack. As a result, the snow has melted fast at lower elevations, and snowpack depths have seen rapid settlement. With the current cool conditions and freezing levels falling to the valley bottom I suspect a widespread melt-freeze crust may exist. 

At the base of the snowpack sits the early November crust with basal facets below. Currently, hard shear snowpack test results exist on this potential weak interface and should continue to be tracked as the snowpack builds. In areas north and east in the region, the bottom of the snowpack reportedly consists of a crust from early November and weak facets near the ground. These basal facets have produced very large deep persistent slab avalanches near the Ningunsaw and Tatlatui Provincial Parks. Although the extent of this snowpack structure in the region is not well-known, it may be more prevalent in colder, shallower areas north and east in the region. 

Snowpack depths vary substantially with aspect, elevation, and wind exposure. Below treeline the terrain may still be below the threshold for avalanches. 

• Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
• Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
• If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
• Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain.