Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 2nd, 2018 5:45PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Wet.

ghelgeson, Avalanche Canada

South Coast.

Continued warm temperatures should allow the snowpack to further settle and stabilize, but small storm slabs in more extreme terrain may still be an issue. Watch for the odd loose wet avalanche on steep solar aspects in the afternoon too.

Summary

Confidence

High - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

Temperatures along the coast have moderated and this trend is expected to linger into Wednesday as a southwesterly flow of mild Pacific air continues. Those hoping for fresh snow will have to wait until late in the week.WEDNESDAY: Clear skies, freezing level around 2500 m with alpine temperatures up to +5 C, light southeast wind, no snow expected.THURSDAY: Overcast, freezing level around 2500 m, light to moderate southwest wind, 2 to 5 mm of precipitation expected in the afternoon.FRIDAY: Overcast, freezing level around 2500 m, light to moderate southwest wind, 5 to 7 mm of precipitation expected in the afternoon.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity has been reported recently, but check out one of our forecaster's Mountain Information Network (MIN) posts from Monday. Warm temperatures and some direct sun on Monday and Tuesday may have initiated a round of natural loose wet avalanches at upper elevations.

Snowpack Summary

Two successive storms produced 40 to 80 cm of snow over the last week. On Monday and Tuesday temperatures warmed dramatically. On Tuesday the Deeks Peak weather station (1280 m) got up to +8.7 C, Mt. Strachan (1420 m) topped out at +6.5 C. These warm temperatures combined with Friday night's rain event should allow the entire snowpack to settle and stabilize. Forecast warm temperatures through the week should allow for further settlement.Wind effect in the alpine has been widely reported but wind slab activity has been limited to isolated terrain features with one or more of the following characteristics; steep, unsupported and/or convex. 50 to 100 cm below the surface there are a few prominent melt-freeze crusts that were buried mid-December. This layer has not produced much in the way of avalanche activity and is likely trending towards dormancy. Beneath the mid-December crust, the lower snowpack is generally strong and well settled.The snowpack depth is about 160 cm at 1000 m, 220 cm at 1250 m. Many early season hazards are still present at lower elevations.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Aided by wind, time and warmth, the storm snow is likely settling into a stubborn old slab that is becoming quite resistant to human triggering, but prolonged warming may change its behavior.

Storm slabs may become more sensitive to human triggering with continued warm alpine temperatures.Caution with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Loose Wet

Natural loose wet avalanches remain possible Wednesday, especially on steep sun exposed slopes. With all the new snow in the last week, loose wet avalanches could entrain considerable mass, especially in terrain traps like gulleys.

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 3rd, 2018 2:00PM