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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 13th, 2018–Jan 14th, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

Human-triggered avalanches are likely with several buried surface hoar layers. It's time for conservative decision making.

Weather Forecast

Today is a day of transition in the weather pattern. The flow is becoming more Southerly and bringing warmer temps & moisture eventually. Freezing level will climb to 1200m this afternoon.  We can expect cloudy skies with some sunny periods and light flurries with no significant precipitation are expected. Wind at mountain top will be SW 20-30.

Snowpack Summary

10cm fell overnight adding to 70cm of snowfall in the past week. This storm snow has settled into a slab over several weak layers. Jan 4th surface hoar is down 50cm and the Dec 15 surface hoar persistent weak layer is down around 100cm. The recent snow load has made these layers reactive with sudden planar results showing high propagation potential

Avalanche Summary

A size 3 natural avalanche occurred Thursday morning on the SE face of 8812 peak. A field team observed evidence of a slightly older widespread natural avalanche cycle while traveling in Connaught Creek drainage. A second field team felt a large whumph while descending through an open glade in the Hermit area.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

A reactive storm slab continues to build & warming temps in the next couple days will make it more touchy. The slab is poorly bonded in areas where the Jan 4 surface hoar is well preserved. If triggered avalanches could step down to the Dec 15th PWL.
Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, and shooting cracks.Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

This interface has become reactive with the recent new loading and is most prevalent around treeline or sheltered areas the alpine. These avalanches are especially dangerous in terrain traps where debris can pile up.
Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3