Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Bow Valley, Highwood Pass, Kananaskis, North 40, Spray - KLakes.
The natural avalanche cycle is tapering somewhat, but human-triggering is primed. Very conservative route selection is strongly advised. Also, be mindful of the powerful March solar input, which could initiate slides on solar aspects. The Canmore hill remains closed for at least one more day while clean up crews work on clearing avalanche debris and plowing the road.
A Special Public Avalanche Warning is in effect and has been extended. Click the red SPAW link for details.
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
Continued evidence of a widespread naturally triggered avalanche cycle up to size 3.0. Fracture lines are averaging 100cm deep and slides are running far and fast.
Snowpack Summary
A few more cm's in the past 24hrs. Wind slabs are encountered, especially in Alpine areas, on various aspects due to variable winds. These slabs are sensitive to human triggering, and if initiated will likely step down to the Feb 2 layer (facets over a crust) buried 70 to 100cm. The Feb 2 layer has been very active in recent days with a natural avalanche cycle ongoing up to size 3.0. The November basal facets are alive and well and back on our radar as the Feb 2 rain crust is deteriorating and not locking in the weaknesses below it as it once did. Skier weight has now been able to break through the rain crust in some places, which means that the basal facets can now be more easily affected.
Weather Summary
Mostly sunny with light NW winds. Temperatures should reach -10C. No precipitation is expected.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
- Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent and overhead slopes.
- If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
New snow is overloading the Feb 2nd persistent weak layer now buried 70 100cm deep. This layer has facets above and below the crust. Remote triggering is a strong possibility.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 3
Wind Slabs
Failures within the recent snow, including wind slabs and storm slabs from rapid settlement, have been observed in recent days. If triggered these slabs could step down to the Feb 2 layer producing very large avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 3
Deep Persistent Slabs
Avalanches may step down to the weeker deep basal layers.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2.5 - 3.5