Avalanche forecast

Kananaskis

Feb 13 – 14, 2015Alberta Parks
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Archived · expired 12 years ago

Avalanche danger

Sun
Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

A Special Public Avalanche Warning (SPAW) has been issued for the region. The concern is the unusually slow bonding within the entire snowpack. Recent slab avalanches have been large and in many cases very surprising.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–4
    At treeline these slabs have gone through some warming/cooling trends. Despite this, the bond with the Jan31 layer is still considered to be weak and suspect. Treat steep terrain at treeline and alpine elevations with caution.

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    With the warmth, comes the risk of cornices collapsing. Most cornices have had extended exposure to the sun and warm air. They are ripe, and ready to be a trigger for deeper layers.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3–6
    In big terrain this is a serious concern. Variable depth snowpacks and terrain with large, potential triggers should be avoided. Avoid exposure to avalanche runout zones.

Avalanche Summary

A bombing mission on Rundle had limited results. 3 of the 4 bombs produced avalanches up to sz2. All of them failed on the Jan31st layer. Previous control had dealt with the deeper layers, so these results are not necessarily transferable to the backcountry.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Saturday will be very similar to today. The temps today exceeded the forecasted values, so we can expect something similar tomorrow. Sunny periods are expected, solar heating could be an issue on south aspects. The forecasted freezing level is 2000 with a 2500m high of -2. The 2500m winds should be steady at 40km/hr from the NW. No snow (or rain) is expected.

Snowpack Summary

Today's temperatures reached well above zero in all forecast areas. The Aster Lake region hit +3 degrees. The lack of an overnight freeze left the valley bottom snow isothermal in places. This condition gradually improves with elevation, but generally the snow up to treeline has had significant warming. Treeline and above has windslabs that are dense, and relatively warm. Whumphing is less common now, but the weak interface is still present. The Jan31st interface is still the main concern at all elevations. At treeline it is down 50-60.

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