A big storm looms in our future. Forecasts are showing almost 51cm by Monday evening. The danger will certainly rise with the rapid load. Cornices are just starting to become a concern now as well. Always have a look at what's above you.
Confidence
Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Tonight should see a small storm cycle come through the Spray Valley. Winds will temporarily spike and up to 7cm by tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will stay at the same level as the last few days, -12 in the alpine and -6 at valley bottom. There will be a short lull before the next storm starts Friday night. This one will be more intense, 23cm's over the 24hr period. Winds will once again spike to the extreme range at 3000m and strong range at ridge top. The long term shows yet another storm arriving on Monday. Stay tuned...
Avalanche Summary
There were a number of avalanches spotted today, however their age is uncertain. All happened within the last 3 days. Notable observations are:SZ2.5 out of the Mt. Kidd bowl (above ice climb). Debris ran to bottom of runout (over the ice at the bottom). The Oct 27 crust is suspected.2, SZ2's out of the second and third bowls on Rundle. One was a cornice triggered windslab and the other was a repeat performer on the Oct. crust.
Snowpack Summary
Moderate to strong winds continued in the alpine today. Wind loaded areas in the alpine are quite distinct at this point. Exposed ridges near tree line are blown down to scree in many areas. This means that at TL the windslab condition is still developing. The slabs are expected to extend well below ridge lines and of course cross loaded features will become more problematic. Once the terrain is sheltered the slabs begin to become softer and less frequent. Below Tree Line (BTL) the snow pack is still weak with ski penetration of 30-40cm's. Height of Snow(HS) @ Burstall Pass 100cm, Height of Snow(HS)@ Burstall parking 73,
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.