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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 27th, 2014–Mar 30th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

Good skiing out there but watch for even short periods of solar heating to raise the danger rating.

Weather Forecast

A series of systems continues to approach from the coast. Winds should increase Friday and diminish a bit Sunday. Temperatures look to warm up a bit for the period with peak heating bring the freezing level as high as 1850m Saturday with good overnight recovery.  Precip will be light with some clearing: watch for brief periods of intense heating.

Snowpack Summary

10 to 20 cm of new snow now buries  a solar crust from Tuesday. This crust extends everywhere except for steep shaded North slopes. At 2000m the March Rain Crusts can be found down 70 to 100cm and these crusts extend to at least 2300m. The Feb facets are generally buried deeply and are now below these crusts except in thin high elevation areas.

Avalanche Summary

A significant solar cycle occurred Tuesday with moist snow gouging down to the March Crusts at low elevations to size 2. Loose Dry activity has also been seen with at least one sz 2 running 350m. Skiers today found easy sluffing with the new snow over the 0326 crust in steep terrain.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.