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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 17th, 2016–Dec 18th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

Exact wind speeds and snow amounts remain uncertain for Sunday evening into Monday. Monitor for intense snow transport building slabs.

Weather Forecast

Sunday will be -20 to -15 degrees with light West winds and possibly flurries. Sunday to Monday evening will be slightly warmer temperatures -16 to -12 degrees and 5-10cm of snow with increasing West winds. Winds may gust strong to extreme range in wind prone areas at higher elevations Sunday night and Monday.

Snowpack Summary

Cold temps are promoting facetting in the snowpack breaking down internal cohesion, especially below 2100ms. Where snowpack is shallow, expect to be standing on the ground. Deeper snowpack areas have faceted down to the Nov12 crust (45-90cm deep). May be a buried SH layer down 5cm to keep an eye on.

Avalanche Summary

No patrol Saturday. Brrrrrrrr coooooold. No new avalanches reported.

Confidence

Wind effect is extremely variable on Monday

Problems

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.