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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 21st, 2014–Dec 22nd, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper.

Excellent skiing reported around Hilda Ridge today.  The avalanche hazard will increase on Tuesday as a storm will hit with heavy snow and strong West winds.

Weather Forecast

Continued snow flurries with moderate W winds on Monday.  Snow begins on Tuesday afternoon intensifying through the night and then tapering by Wednesday afternoon with up to 20 cm expected.  Strong westerly winds will accompany this storm.  Seasonal temperatures that will fall after the storm has past.

Snowpack Summary

Wind slab forming on lee alpine ridge lines.  Large surface hoar crystals formed last week are being buried by new snow.  This layer is more likely found on sheltered slopes at tree line reaching into the alpine.  The interface between the strong mid-pack and weaker basal facets is most susceptible to human triggering from shallow rocky areas.

Avalanche Summary

Some minor loose snow sluffing on steep terrain.  No slab avalanches reported today.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Tuesday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.