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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 27th, 2014–Feb 28th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Cariboos.

Riders should remain vigilant for changing conditions. Terrain choices are critical as this snowpack evolves. Check out the latest:              Forecasters Blog

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

The ridge of high pressure continues to dictate conditions for the forecast period. Dry cold arctic air scheduled to move back into the region. Strong arctic outflow winds have already begun and will continue into the coming weekend. For a more in-depth look at upcoming weather conditions, check out the: WEATHER OUTLOOKThursday night: Cloudy periods, freezing level at valley bottom, ridge top winds, light to 25Km/h.Friday: Sunny, freezing level at valley bottom, no precipitation in the forecast, ridge top winds from the north to 20 Km/hSaturday: Sunny, freezing level at valley bottom, ridge top winds from the north gusting to 40 Km/h.Sunday: Sunny, freezing level at valley bottom, ridge top winds light.

Avalanche Summary

Reports of avalanche activity in the forecast region include cornice failures, skier accidentals, and skier controlled avalanches.  Solar warming on steep south aspects may trigger avalanches that might "step down" to weak mid -pack and basal layers possibly triggering a very large slide. Conditions are ideal for rider triggering right now.  Skiers and riders need to be mindful that although the frequency of natural avalanches has gone down recently, the consequences of triggering a large avalanche could be devastating.

Snowpack Summary

The storm slab (surface hoar/facet/crust combo) that was formed following the preceding month of cold, dry weather appears to be gaining strength with settlement and warm temperatures. The persistent weak layer remains widespread at all elevations and aspects, and although it is not as reactive as it has been, it's still a very real concern. Large settlements and whumpfs are still being reported. Remotely-triggered avalanches indicate the ability of this weak layer to fail and propagate over large distances. Touchy conditions are expected to remain in place longer than we're normally accustomed to. Some Katabatic (down-flowing) winds slab formation is being reported as well.In many wind loaded areas, a slab of up to 2m thick overlies the persistent weak layer creating conditions for very large avalanches.  Winds changing to NE in the coming days may build wind slabs on SW and S slopes.Weak basal facets exist in some areas, but triggering has now become unlikely. For the most part, the mid and lower snowpack are strong and well consolidated.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.