Avalanche Forecast

Relatively lighter snowfall amounts and a more subdued warming trend along the east slopes Thursday night and Friday should dampen the rising avalanche danger trend seen elsewhere in the Cascades. Heavier than expected snowfall or a quicker warming trend would rapidly increase the danger Friday. 

Look for shallow new wind slab on a variety of aspects mainly above treeline. If new storm slab does build Friday, it should quickly become sensitive and poorly bonded to the existing weak snow surface. Watch for shooting cracks and signs of increasing instability Friday on the new snow/old snow interface especially near and below treeline. 

In steep sheltered terrain continue to watch for small loose dry avalanches near terrain traps like cliff bands where even small avalanches can have big consequences.

Even though the lower part of the below treeline band is filling in, you will need to watch for early season travel hazards such as barely covered rocks and open creeks.

Weather and Snowpack

An active and cool weather pattern has resulted in a snowy December thus far with NWAC stations along the east slopes recording about 1-1.5 feet of snow.

Cold and fair weather has taken hold since Monday. There have been many reports of right side up, favorable density profiles with lower density snow nearer the surface. We've been hearing the term "as good as it gets" quite a lot lately!

Given the favorable snowpack profile, good bonds between older snow layers and a lack of deeper layer concerns, avalanche problems should be confined to the upcoming old snow/new snow interface or within new storm layering. 

Cold fair weather like this usually causes some new surface hoar layer and near surface faceted snow. This snow can make for great skiing or riding. But these layers will need to be watched if loaded by wind transported snow or new snow.

Recent Observations

The most recent observations from near Washington Pass Monday and Tuesday indicate great skiing, favorable snowpack profiles and good bonds of older snow layers.

While coverage in most below treeline remains thin, the upper elevations of this lowest band are filling in quite impressively and we are bumping the overall danger to moderate in this band as a result. But the lower elevations in many areas lack good coverage and open creeks and other early season hazards remain. 

In general, more snow is needed in the Mission Ridge area and southeast Cascades to present an avalanche danger. In wind-loaded terrain near and above treeline, no weak layers of note have been reported lately by the Mission pro-patrol.