Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Mt Hood.
Updated: Changed below treeline band to moderate due to increased concern related to loose wet avalanches; forecast zones further north such as Stevens Pass reported large loose wet avalanche activity late on a NW aspect and similar conditions may develop on Mt. Hood.
Lots of cold snow in the Mt. Hood region doesn’t like warming weather. As the sun warms the snow and further warming occurs we expect wet avalanches may be large and moving to higher elevations. Constantly monitor the surface snow conditions for wet snow and roller-balls and adjust your aspect and slope angle to avoid these more hazardous conditions.
Discussion
Snow and Avalanche Discussion
Warm temperatures and sun following a storm on the 11-13th are the main drivers of our avalanche concerns. With increased daytime warming, high temperatures each day will be the warmest we've seen since January. Although the snowpack hasn't made the transition to spring, keep typical spring considerations on your mind like wet snow, cornices, and timing of your travel through the terrain. During these transitions, soft snow persists on non-solar aspects and a thin sun crust is likely to break down on solar aspects to allow for Loose Wet avalanche activity. It’s important to make frequent observations and check whether the conditions line up with the forecast.
A day of strong sunshine and warm temperatures (45F at Mt. Hood base) on Friday produced a good round of small to large loose wet avalanche activity on solar aspects.
We think that the recent warm temperatures have hastened the healing process for wind slabs, although you may still find them, particularly above 7000 ft.
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Snowpack Discussion
March 14, 2019
It’s starting to feel a lot like spring. The sun is stronger. Temperatures are warmer. The days are longer. Each year March brings a period of transition for the snowpack. Despite the feel of spring, the transition to a spring snowpack could take quite a while. Right now, it’s still winter in the mountains.
A northeast through southeast facing bowl in Tunnel Creek, Stevens Pass. The red line shows the transition from northeast to east aspects. Crusts were on the surface of east aspects (right of the line). Surface snow on northeast was soft and dry. March 11th, 2019. Photo: Josh Hirshberg
Aspect dependent snowpacks
A common trend this time of year is the distinct difference between snowpacks on shaded slopes and those on sunny slopes. We might refer to this as aspect dependent snowpacks. The strong March sun can create crusts and send melt-water through the snowpack on sunny slopes.
That process is beginning, right now. As of the 14th, sun-exposed aspects have a crust at the surface. Otherwise, these slopes hold mostly dry layers in the upper 3 feet of snow. The sun now affects more aspects than in the earlier half of the winter. You may find sun affected and melt-freeze crust on any slope that received direct or indirect sunshine. This could include some northwest or even northeast aspects.
Shaded slopes are still holding onto cold winter like snowpacks. That doesn’t mean you won’t find any melt-forms in these areas, but the snowpack looks, feels, and acts more like mid-winter. Avalanche problems can follow a similar trend by aspect. You may see wet avalanche problems on sunny aspects and lingering dry slab problems on shaded slopes.
Two photos taken on March 10th in the Snow Lake area. The left is N facing terrain on Chair Peak with cold, dry surface snow. The right photo shows loose wet avalanches on E facing slopes of Mount Roosevelt. Photo: Ian Nicholson
Balancing problems
So, how do we balance these sometimes opposing snowpacks? In a word, observations. Transitional periods like this require diligence and planning. It seems obvious, but observations you make on a south-facing slope aren’t applicable to N facing terrain. Consider this as you plan your day. Secondly, you’ll want to make observations to verify the avalanche forecast. As we’ve discussed, snowpack structures can diverge during these transitional periods. When your observations line-up with the information you find in the daily avalanche forecast, the forecast is likely valid. If you see observations that don’t match, it’s time to stop, reevaluate, and possibly choose more conservative terrain options.
Making snowpack observations to verify the forecast. Photo: Pete Durr
Less elevated danger and changing trends
You may not find low avalanche danger on every avalanche forecast, but spring is a time of year when less significant hazards can allow backcountry travelers to explore deeper into the mountains. The longer days and often lower avalanche hazard can support stepping into bigger terrain. Remember that low danger doesn’t mean "no danger." Additionally, avalanche conditions can change quickly during spring due to rapid warming over the course of a day or snowfall from potent storms.
We forecast for very large regions. You travel on individual slopes. You may encounter anomalies in the landscape where conditions don’t match the forecast. As with any time you travel in snowy mountains, you can stay safe by using standard travel protocols to minimize your exposure to avalanche terrain and the hazards of the day. Keep your eyes open and be ready to adapt to changing conditions.
What's next?
Winter is far from over. Keep checking the forecast, tracking conditions, making observations, and telling us what you find.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
With all the recent snow, we think one more day of strong sunshine can get these going again. If the slope is big enough, any loose wet may entrain significant new snow and become large. It is worth mentioning that warming snow could begin to impact non-solar aspects and if it does, wet avalanches may occur here as well. Any wet snow surfaces snow should make you suspicious of the slope, particularly if the snow was previously cold and dry. If you see signs of wet avalanches, steer away from steep, particularly those receiving sunshine.
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1