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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 16th, 2014–Jan 17th, 2014
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

Avalanche control work and natural avalanche observations have resulted in numerous full depth releases involving the entire winters snowpack. Minimize exposure to overhead terrain and watch for effects of rapidly rising temperatures on solar aspects

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Freezing level is forecast to rise up to 1900m on Friday and up to 2200m on Saturday!  No new precipitation in the foreseeable future .  Winds will be light out of the north.

Avalanche Summary

A few recent avalanches up to sz 3 have been observed over the past few days. These slides have mainly been on N and E aspects but have been running full path involving the entire winters snowpack. A size 3.5 natural avalanche was observed in the area of the Smuts/Fist col on Thursday and two days previous a SIze 3 natural avalanche occurred in the Heros Knob Bowl area which ran full path to the valley floor.  Both are S/SE facing and have experienced considerable loading and solar influences with the clearing skies.

Snowpack Summary

Strong to extreme SW winds and warm temps have promoted rapid settlement of the snowpack over the past 48hrs. Any available snow in Alpine terrain has been redistributed by the wind and deposited in lee features and along cross-loaded gullies. The additional load from the winds seems to be kicking off another cycle of natural avalanche activity mainly on N and E aspects as the basal facets become overloaded.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Widespread and rapid propagation of the surface windslabs was observed during avalanche control work on Thursday. 
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 5

Persistent Slabs

Avalanche control work and natural avalanche activity observations highlight the deep weakness - natural avalanche observations and avalanche control work  consistently saw failures occurring at the base of the snowpack  producing large avalanches.
Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.>Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 4 - 6