Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 16th, 2014 7:43AM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

burke.duncan, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

Avalanche control work and natural avalanche observations have resulted in numerous full depth releases involving the entire winters snowpack. Minimize exposure to overhead terrain and watch for effects of rapidly rising temperatures on solar aspects

Summary

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Freezing level is forecast to rise up to 1900m on Friday and up to 2200m on Saturday! No new precipitation in the foreseeable future . Winds will be light out of the north.

Avalanche Summary

A few recent avalanches up to sz 3 have been observed over the past few days. These slides have mainly been on N and E aspects but have been running full path involving the entire winters snowpack. A size 3.5 natural avalanche was observed in the area of the Smuts/Fist col on Thursday and two days previous a SIze 3 natural avalanche occurred in the Heros Knob Bowl area which ran full path to the valley floor. Both are S/SE facing and have experienced considerable loading and solar influences with the clearing skies.

Snowpack Summary

Strong to extreme SW winds and warm temps have promoted rapid settlement of the snowpack over the past 48hrs. Any available snow in Alpine terrain has been redistributed by the wind and deposited in lee features and along cross-loaded gullies. The additional load from the winds seems to be kicking off another cycle of natural avalanche activity mainly on N and E aspects as the basal facets become overloaded.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Widespread and rapid propagation of the surface windslabs was observed during avalanche control work on Thursday.

Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

2 - 5

Persistent Slabs

Avalanche control work and natural avalanche activity observations highlight the deep weakness - natural avalanche observations and avalanche control work consistently saw failures occurring at the base of the snowpack producing large avalanches.

Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.>Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

4 - 6

Valid until: Jan 17th, 2014 2:00PM