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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 14th, 2014–Mar 15th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

Watch for decreases in stability if the sun comes out on Saturday.  On Sunday a storm is forecast to cross the region giving us 30cm of new snow and moderate to strong winds out of the SW.

Confidence

Good - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

Temperatures are forecast to cool overnight but on Saturday, clear-ish skies are forecast so we can expect there to be decreases in stability on solar aspects later in the day when/if the sun comes out.  Late saturday a storm is forecast to track across the region giving us up to 30cm of new snow by Sunday afternoon with strong westerly winds. 

Avalanche Summary

No new natural avalanche observations.

Snowpack Summary

Most Alpine areas are wind affected with windward slopes stripped bare and lee slopes full of hard slabs. At treeline the 0211 interface is down 70-100cm and producing moderate to hard shears.  Most areas below 200m there is a thin temperature crust but while on solar aspects there is a thick temperature crust up to the peaks.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Snowpack is settling and strengthening and the 0211 layer is slowly gaining strength.  At treeline this layer is down 70-100cm while in the alpine its down anywhere from 40cm to 150cm.  Sudden planar sheers are still being observed.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>Choose the deepest and strongest snowpack areas on your run.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs are widespread on lee aspects in alpine areas and isolated areas at treeline.  These problems may step down to the 0211 layer so use caution.
Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Choose well supported terrain without convexities.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Loose Wet

This will only be a problem on solar aspects if the sun comes out.
Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>Avoid ice climbs that are exposed to steep rocky terrain on solar aspects.>

Aspects: North.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2