Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 10th, 2016 3:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Dry.

jeremy.mackenzie, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

Human-triggering of an avalanche in steep Alpine terrain is still possible. Evaluate the snowpack carefully before committing to a line.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number and quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

A mix of sun and cloud on Monday with no precipitation expected. Alpine temperatures should reach a high of -10 C and a temperature inversion is possible (cooler in the valleys). Ridge-top winds will be out of the west at 30 km/h. A weak system may bring light flurries to the region on Wednesday.

Avalanche Summary

Nothing new observed today, but a few avalanches up to size 1.5 (both loose dry and wind slabs) have occurred in the past 72hrs in steep Alpine terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Wind slabs are found in Alpine areas on all aspects due to persistent winds from variable directions. These slabs range between 5 and 25cm thick and are more concerning for human-triggering in shallow snowpack areas. Wind transport continues to move small amounts of snow around, which leaves a potential for some sluffing in steep terrain. Buried sun crusts are found on steep solar aspects, but so far this has not been an avalanche concern, but it is a ski quality concern. The Dec 4th layer is still found in the snowpack down 30 to 50cm, but this layer remains dormant at the moment. Shallow snowpack regions and lower elevations have seen significant faceting over the past 2 weeks leading to a progressively weaker snowpack in these areas.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs are present in much of the Alpine. These slabs are up to 25cm thick and could be triggered in steep and/or unsupported terrain and in thin snowpack features.

Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Dry

Persistent winds continue to move snow around which has led to sluffing in steep terrain over the past 72hrs.

Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.>Avoid travelling on ledges and cliffs where sluffing may have severe consequences.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 11th, 2016 2:00PM