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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 1st, 2017–Jan 2nd, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Northwest Inland.

Continued northerly winds means continued "reverse loading" wind slab formation.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Monday: Strong northerly winds Sunday continue overnight and Monday / continued cool temperatures / some sun and no new snowTuesday: Northerly winds declining into the moderate range / slightly colder temperatures / sunnier than Monday and no new snow.Wednesday: Light Easterly wind / steady cold temperatures around -15 - -20 C / sunny and dry

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle with slides up to size 2 occurred Friday in the mountains near Smithers. This was in response to the strong northerly winds. Thanks to the folks who contributed these observations through our Mountain Information Network.Wind slabs will likely remain touchy throughout the forecast period, as sustained winds redistribute any loose surface snow. Deeper persistent weak layers will also remain a concern, it is possible to trigger larger avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack depths in this region are still shallow - around 1 m or so, meaning there are a lot of weak sugary facets in the snowpack. Recent storm snow is being redistributed by strong to extreme winds, and wind slabs are widespread behind exposed features. Where hard wind slabs overlie weak facets, the structure is ripe for human-triggered avalanches.In addition to the sugary facets, you may find a layer of feathery surface hoar (up to 15 mm in sheltered areas), buried around 20 - 30 cm below the surface. There is another weak layer that formed during the early December cold snap which is now about 40-60 cm deep. A crust from mid-November may be found close to the bottom of the snowpack nestled in amongst the facets. We don't have a lot of information about these layers, but it's worth noting the layer responsible for most of the large avalanches during the big storm just before Christmas was the mid-November rain crust.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Extreme winds will continue to redistribute loose surface snow into reactive wind slabs. Watch for areas that were previously scoured and may become reverse-loaded by northerly winds.
Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.Avoid travelling in areas that have been reverse loaded by winds.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

40-60 cm of recent snow sits above a weak, faceted lower snowpack. This fundamentally weak snowpack structure supports human-triggered avalanches from places like convex slopes in shallow areas, and is likely to persist for some time.
If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to weak layers at the base of the snowpack.Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3