Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Tonight and Friday: Most of the province is under a high pressure system. Moderate to strong wind from the SW will switch from the S. Temperatures will rise as well as freezing levels up to 3000 m (or 2000 m further North) with a mix of sun and clouds during the day.Saturday: A weakening frontal system will reach the coast which should bring light precipitation and strong S winds switching from the SW in the afternoon. Freezing levels are expected to lower to 1400 m. with the arrival of the snow.Sunday: Ridge of high pressure rebuilds over the coast leading to a clearing trend with mild temperatures.

In the far Northern part of the region, there was an avalanche cycle yesterday at all elevation and on all aspects. Multiple natural releases up to size 3.5.  Most of these avalanches would have run on the early January surface hoar layer buried under the storm snow at treeline and below treeline on low angled terrain. In the Southern part, a few small slab avalanches were reported from steep leeward terrain. A couple days ago, a natural avalanche was reported which took place around Smithers. This avalanche occurred on a NE aspects slope at treeline in a wind affected area.

The increased solar radiation and warming trend  is keeping avalanche conditions elevated for tomorrow. The intense heat will weaken the surface of the snowpack and most likely increase avalanche activity on all aspects, but especially on S and SE aspects slopes when the sun comes out. There is a possibility that loose wet or slabs could step down to deeper instabilities.The past wind event has created extensive windslabs in the alpine and at treeline.  Those settled rapidly with the mild temperatures but could become more sensitive with the forecasted warm temperatures and solar radiation.  The buried surface hoar layer at treeline and the basal facets in thin rocky areas at treeline and in the alpine could become more reactive with the forecasted heat shock.