Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
We are still getting a handle on the snowpack post storm, so be prepared to evaluate the snowpack carefully. Storm slabs remain possible on Friday due to potentially moderate snowfall rates Thursday afternoon and evening forming unstable storm layers. A period of moderate E-SE winds Friday may build new wind slab near and above treeline on westerly aspects.
Detailed Forecast
Snow showers on Thursday should taper down overnight. A frontal band rotating up from the south Friday should bring generally light snow showers for the Olympics in the afternoon. Out ahead of this frontal band, there should be a period of light to moderate E-SE winds.Â
A period of moderate E-SE winds Friday may build new wind slab near and above treeline on westerly aspects, especially in places with lower density snow available for transport. All aspects are indicated to cover older wind slab on more easterly aspects. Look for recent wind effects near and below ridgelines.Â
Storm slabs remain possible on Friday due to potentially moderate snowfall rates Thursday afternoon and evening forming unstable storm layers. Give these layers time to settle and approach steeper slopes with caution.  Â
We are still getting a handle on the snowpack post storm, so be prepared to evaluate the snowpack carefully in your local area.Â
The 12/17 PWL which has been largely unreactive as of late may awaken during the expected upcoming warm and wet period with the potential to produce large and destructive avalanches down to this layer.
Snowpack Discussion
Weather and Snowpack
An arctic air mass was over the Northwest with fair, cold weather last week. Surface hoar and near surface faceted crystals formed in wind and sun sheltered areas during this period. Observations over the next few days should help determine to what extent any of these weak persistent grain types might have survived the atmospheric river event and remain relevant to the forecast moving forward.
An atmospheric river moved over the Northwest Tuesday and Wednesday. Heavy rain was seen up to about 5500 feet in the Hurricane Ridge area. 3 day precipitation totals through noon Thursday were about 2.5 inches at Hurricane Ridge. An avalanche cycle likely occurred in Olympics during this period.
The NPS reported about a storm total of 15 inches of lower density snow at the Hurricane Ridge manual snow plot Thursday morning. Showers continued during the day Thursday but our precipitation gage didn't record any precipitation after 9 am, possibly due to equipment problems.Â
Recent Observations
The last observation for the Hurricane area is from NWAC pro-observer Matt Schonwald on Klahane Ridge on Friday, 1/13. He found 90 cm of snow with no reactive layers over the 12/17 PWL on a south slope at 5170 feet. But the PWL gave a PST60/100 End result, so we still need to watch this layer.
NPS personnel reported debris in the Old Faithful track down to the Hurricane Ridge road at 3500 feet. Debris piled up 10-15 feet deep in this narrow slide path. Plow drivers discovered the debris mid-day Wednesday with the avalanche likely occurring Tuesday or Tuesday night.Â
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Storm Slabs
Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.
Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Persistent Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of soft to hard snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slabs.
The best ways to manage the risk from Persistent Slabs is to make conservative terrain choices. They can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. The slabs often propagate in surprising and unpredictable ways. This makes this problem difficult to predict and manage and requires a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.
This Persistent Slab was triggered remotely, failed on a layer of faceted snow in the middle of the snowpack, and crossed several terrain features.
Persistent slabs can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. You can trigger them remotely and they often propagate across and beyond terrain features that would otherwise confine wind and storm slabs. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Unlikely
Expected Size: 1 - 1