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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 7th, 2014–Mar 8th, 2014
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

Confidence

Fair

Weather Forecast

Saturday: Mainly cloudy with periods of light snow and possible sunny breaks around 5 cm. The freezing level is around 1000 m in the north and 1400 m in the south. Winds are moderate to strong from the S-SW. Sunday: Periods of snow 10-15 cm. The freezing level is around 800-1000 m. Winds are moderate to strong from the S-SW. Monday: Mainly cloudy with a chance of flurries. The freezing level is around 800-1000 m. Winds are moderate S-SW.

Avalanche Summary

Some loose dry sluffing was reported in steep terrain on Thursday. This will likely change to slab avalanche activity as the snow piles up and the overlying slab becomes more cohesive with warming temperatures.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 25 cm of new snow (at the time of writing) now sits on a layer of surface hoar or sugary faceted snow on shady slopes, a sun crust on steep solar aspects, or hard wind slabs and scoured slopes in exposed terrain. Initial tests on this new interface showed a poor bond between the new snow and old snow surface. The mid February weak layer of surface hoar or a crust/facet combo is buried 30-90 cm deep. There has been no reported activity on this layer recently, but watch for it to wake up with additional loading from snow and wind or rapid warming. Basal facets and/or depth hoar remain a concern in shallow snowpack areas in the northern part of the region.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The new snow may not bond well to the previous snow surface. Expect deep wind slabs to build in exposed North through East facing terrain at and above treeline, and the potential for wet slab or wet loose avalanches below treeline.
Stick to non-avalanche terrain or small features with limited consequence.>Avoid North-East slopes at or above treeline.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

New loading from snow and wind, combined with significant warming, may be enough to wake up the mid February persistent weak layer and create very large avalanches.
Whumpfing is direct evidence of a buried instability.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 5