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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 15th, 2013–Feb 16th, 2013
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Confidence

Fair - Due to variable weather conditions on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Saturday: Generally light snowfall with moderate amounts expected on the Coquihalla / Moderate with locally strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 1200mSunday: Mix of sun and cloud / Light and variable winds / Freezing level at surfaceMonday: Light snowfall / Light south winds / Freezing level at 1000m

Avalanche Summary

Loose wet avalanche activity to size 2 was observed on solar aspects on Friday. The avalanche activity occurred in response to high freezing levels and direct sunlight. I expect a shift to wind slab activity with cooling, wind and new snow forecast for Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

Very light amounts of recent snowfall in the Duffey Lake area and over 20cm on the Coquihalla have been distributed into wind slabs at higher elevations. On shaded slopes the recent snow may overlie surface hoar which was buried on February 11th. On solar aspects and at lower elevations a melt freeze crust is likely to exist.Below this there are a few buried interfaces which include crusts, facets and surface hoar. My guess is that they are gaining considerable strength; however, it's worth digging down and testing these layers before committing to a steep line.The mid and lower snowpack pack layers are generally well settled.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Forecast snowfall amounts for Saturday are highly variable throughout the region with the greatest accumulations expected on the Coquihalla. Associated winds are likely to shift new snow into windslabs in lee terrain.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4