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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 18th, 2013–Feb 19th, 2013
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Freezing Level: 500m rising to 750m, Wind: Light W, No significant precip.Wednesday: Freezing Level: 500m Wind: SW, initially moderate increasing to strong by sundown.  10 - 15 expected during the day.Thursday: Freezing Level: 500m Wind: Strong SW backing off of to moderate SW in the evening.  10 - 20 cm expected during the day.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity was reported on Sunday.  On Saturday, visibility improved on Saturday revealed the extent of a large natural avalanche cycle in the North.  The big winds and large snowfall drove a cycle to size 3.5. Observations in the southern half of the region were much smaller with cornice failures resulting in size 2 avalanches. The sun is really gaining strength as we get closer to the Spring Equinox which is driving ongoing point releases on solar aspects.

Snowpack Summary

The recent storm snow continues to settle and gain strength as it bonds with the underlying snowpack.  Winds have been blowing with enough energy to move snow, and with 70 cm of storm snow in the north and 20 cm in the south, there's no shortage of new snow to move around.  As a result, slabs have been developing near ridgecrest and in wind exposed locations at treeeline.  Slab properties likely vary from upside down soft slab to stiff and deep wind slab.  Cornices that now loom over many features may become weak with continued growth and/or daytime warming.  The mid and lower snowpack layers are generally well settled.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

The region received a small shot of new snow Monday which is quickly being formed into new soft sensitive wind slabs.  These new wind slabs are covering potentially deep old wind slabs that may still be sensitive to triggering by snow riders.
Monday's east winds will likely build wind slabs in unusual locations. Avoid traveling in areas that are being actively wind loaded.>Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 6

Cornices

The recent snow and wind have been building cornices on lee features.  These cornices are likely weak and may fail at anytime.  Cornice failure has the potential to trigger large avalanches.
Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4