Avalanche Forecast

Low - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Monday

There is a lot of uncertainty in the current weather forecast as winter and summer battle it out in this season we call spring. In short, temperatures are expected to cool a bit Monday and Tuesday and the Purcells should see significant precipitation before the ridge rebounds and sends the freezing level into the heavens once again. MONDAY: Freezing level beginning near 2500 m, lowering throughout the day to around 1500 m by sunset, 2 to 12 mm of precipitation expected, overcast sky, moderate winds first out of the southwest switching to northwest in the late afternoon. TUESDAY: Freezing level beginning near 1500 m rising to around 2200 m, a few clouds in the morning, increasing to broken cloud cover in the afternoon, convective snow/rain showers possible, light to moderate west/northwest wind. WEDNESDAY: Freezing level starting around 2200 m, rising to over 2700 m throughout the day, no significant precipitation expected, moderate to strong west/northwest wind, sky steadily clearing throughout the day. For more detailed mountain weather information visit avalanche.ca/weather

It should come as no surprise that the very warm temperatures and strong sun have resulted in a lot of recent natural avalanche activity. Wet slab failures to size 2.5 have been common over the last few days on almost all aspects, (the exception being high elevation north.) There has also been an immense amount of both loose wet avalanches and cornice failures occurring over the last few days which have been coming in all shapes and sizes from small to scary big. The odd size 3 glide release continues to be observed too.

The warm daytime temperatures and weak/non-existent overnight refreeze over the past few days have moistened the upper snowpack at all elevations. High elevation north may be the last hideout of relatively "cold" snow heading into Monday morning. Interestingly, there may also be some surface hoar remaining on these same high elevation north facing features. Below 1400 m, the snowpack is likely fully isothermal. The March 22nd rain crust is present to around 2000 m, but the warm temps have likely allowed the overlying 30 to 40 cm of snow to bond well. Once it freezes, March 22nd should not be much of a concern. The late February persistent weak layer is now down 40 to 100 cm below the surface and it may remain sensitive to human triggering, especially in shallow weak spots.