Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Light winds and 5-10 cm of new snow overnight. Winds becoming moderate from the west during the day on Saturday as a weak ridge of high pressure builds after the storm. There may be some sunny breaks Saturday afternoon, but more likely to clear overnight. Freezing levels bouncing between valley bottoms and 1400 metres. Mostly sunny on Sunday with light winds and freezing levels up to 1200 metres. Cloudy with increasing southwest winds on Monday.

On Thursday we had reports of natural storm slab avalanches up to size 2.0 and explosives controlled avalanches up to size 2.5. On Wednesday there were reports of natural cornice falls up to size 2.5, and explosives control released slab avalanches up to size 2.5. Most of the slab avalanches were in the alpine on east aspects. I suspect that new wind slabs and storms slabs were easy to trigger in the alpine on Friday.

There has been 20-30 cm of new snow in the past few days that has added to the recent storm slab above the buried crust. About 30-60 cm below the surface, you'll likely find a melt freeze crust which exists in most places except for in high elevation shaded terrain. In general there seems to be a reasonable bond between the crust and the overlying snow. I'd still keep an eye on this interface as it has become reactive on some features. If the sun comes out this weekend, periods of strong solar radiation may increase the likelihood of triggering the storm slab. In isolated areas there may be a weak layer of surface hoar at the storm snow/crust interface that is touchy to human triggers and may result in wide propagations. The early January surface hoar/ facet layer is typically down 70-120 cm. Avalanche activity at this interface has tapered-off over the past week, but I'd be reluctant to trust this potentially destructive layer just yet. In general, the lower snowpack is well settled and strong, apart from some thin snowpack areas where basal facets exist.