Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
EVERYONE!! STAY OUT OF WINTER PERMIT AREAS WHEN THEY ARE CLOSED!!!
People have entered closed areas (Griz Shoulder, Hourglass) 3 days in a row and the winter permit system is in danger of being shut down!
Speak up out there! Let violators know they are jeopardizing their lives from artillery, and everyone's access!
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Artillery control had good results Sunday night...notably Camp West, sz 4, had large timber knocked down across the highway.
On Sunday the field team remote triggered from ridge-top several storm slabs in steep gully features at Fidelity, sz 2-2.5, with crown depths of 30-40cm.
Touchy storm slabs were reported in the Asulkan near the hut, with unsupported rolls shedding sz 2-2.5 slabs.
Snowpack Summary
45cm of storm snow fell Sunday night, 65-80cm the last 2 days, along with mod-strong W'ly winds. Fresh storm slabs blanket the Alpine and exposed Treeline features. Low-density, deep snow is found in sheltered areas.
Several thin crusts are buried below the storm snow on steep solar aspects.
The deep persistent weakness at the base of the snowpack (rounding facets and a crust in some locations) has been showing signs of strengthening recently.
Weather Summary
Wild weather coming at us Monday night! An intense frontal passage will bring strong SW winds and high snowfall rates, then abruptly Tues AM, snowfall stops, winds flip to the E, and temps will drop 10 to 15 degrees.
Tonight: heavy snow, 25cm, strong gusty SW winds, Alp high -6*C
Tues: Isolated flurries, Alp high -16*C, light E winds
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
- Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.
- Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Continuing snowfall and strong winds will keep the storm slab problem active in the region. Watch for cracking in the snowpack and deeper slabs in wind loaded areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 3
Loose Dry
Low density surface snow has created a dry loose avalanche problem in steep, sheltered terrain. Be cautious in steep gullies and on slopes with terrain traps at the bottom.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Cornices
Cornices are rapidly growing with snowfall and winds. A sharp drop in temps Tues AM can shock these big blobs, creating fragile conditions with sudden failures. These large natural triggers could reactivate our basal deep persistent weak layer.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 4