Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 16th, 2023 2:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Loose Wet.
jfmichaud,
Avalanche Canada
Weather forecasting is not an exact science!
Most weather models call for freezing rain or ice pellets, but some are more optimistic and still see some snow.
If you are going to the mountains tomorrow and the amounts of ice pellets or snow are greater than expected, revise the danger rating upwards and be careful!
Summary
Confidence
Low
Avalanche Summary
On Sunday, January 15, a small wind slab avalanche triggered by a skier was reported on the MIN.
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Snowpack Summary
There is a lot of uncertainty in the weather models about what kind of precipitation will fall in the mountains on Tuesday morning, but snow seems the most unlikely possibility, although some models are seeing a little. Mostly we're likely to get a generalized surface crust of ice and, if we're "lucky," a thin layer of sleet.In the last few days, the alpine and treeline were greatly affected by moderate to strong northeast winds. There are isolated pockets of wind slabs in the lee, but mainly a very hard snow surface compressed by the wind.Windward areas are rock or icy crust.In general, the depth of the snowpack varies from 50 to 100 cm depending on the area and the altitude.
Weather Summary
Forecast for the Chic-Chocs ridges and summits.
Synopsis: A major low pressure system brings ice pellets and freezing rain to the Chic-ChocsMonday evening and night: Freezing rain. Wind northeast 30 to 50 km/h. Low -7.Tuesday: Intermittent drizzle. Wind northeast 10 to 20 km/h. High -5. Freezing level at 600m. Wednesday: Cloudy. Wind northwest 10 to 20 km/h. High -1. Freezing level at 400m. Thursday: Cloudy. Wind northeast 40 to 60 km/h. High -7. Freezing level at 100m.
For more details, check out the Chic-Chocs alpine weather forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Small avalanches can have serious consequences in extreme terrain. Carefully evaluate your line for wind slab hazard before you commit to it.
Problems
Loose Wet
This problem will depend on the evolution of the low pressure system. If the freezing rain changes to rain and there is sufficient warmth in the mountains, there could be non-cohesive wet snow avalanches on steep slopes or in extreme terrain.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 17th, 2023 3:00PM
