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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 15th, 2020–Dec 16th, 2020
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: South Columbia.

Up to 25 cm of new snow with southwest winds have likely formed reactive storm slabs. Choose conservative terrain and watch for signs of instability such as whumphing, cracking and recent avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT - Cloudy with flurries, 5-10 cm / southwest wind, 25-50 km/h / alpine low temperature near -8

WEDNESDAY - Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries, 5 cm / southwest wind, 20-40 km/h / alpine high temperature near -7 

THURSDAY - Flurries, 10-20 cm / southwest wind, 20-40 km/h / alpine high temperature near -6

FRIDAY - Flurries, 10-20 cm / southwest wind, 25-50 km/h / alpine high temperature near -7

Avalanche Summary

With 15-25 cm of new snow and moderate to strong southwest winds, human triggered avalanches are likely, especially in wind loaded areas at higher elevations.

Snowpack Summary

15-25 cm of new snow has fallen in the region since Monday afternoon. This new snow has likely buried a weak layer of surface hoar in many areas. This new snow combined with southwest winds is likely forming reactive slabs, especially at higher elevations. 

A weak layer that was buried about a week ago is now down 20-50 cm. This layer is variable and has been reported to exist as either a crust or surface hoar. This layer may react easily to human triggers.

Another crust that was buried in early November can be found near the base of the snowpack. There have been no recent avalanches reported on this layer, however it may be possible to trigger it from shallow, rocky terrain.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

20-50 cm of recent snow likely sits on a few weak layers. Southwest winds have probably promoted slab formation, especially at higher elevations.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5