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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 11th, 2019–Dec 12th, 2019
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

Be aware of where other groups are traveling. Some unconventional up-tracks in the Rogers Pass area climb directly up the normal ski-line.

Reduce your exposure time by taking a safe route up.

Weather Forecast

Mainly cloudy today with flurries picking up in the afternoon, light SW winds at ridgetop, and alpine highs near -8*C. Wed night and Thursday will see a continuation of the flurries, amounting to ~10-15cm, with gusty, moderate SW winds and alpine highs around -5*C. Scattered flurries on Friday bring 5cm, light SW winds, and -7*C in the alpine.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate S-SW winds have created wind slabs in lee alpine features. Clear skies and cool temps have promoted faceting in the new snow, as well as surface hoar growth. The Dec 5 surface hoar is 30-40cm down and is stubborn in tests. The November 23rd surface hoar/crust/facet layer is buried 80-100+cm and is becoming stubborn in stability tests.

Avalanche Summary

Several natural avalanches, sz 2-2.5, were observed from both N and S aspects in steep, alpine start zones above the highway yesterday. No avalanche activity was noted from the backcountry yesterday. On Monday, human triggered avalanches to sz 2 were reported from steep, S-facing alpine start zones (Tupper and Ursus Major), failing on a crust.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

The November 23rd layer is down 80-100+cm and consists of surface hoar at treeline and below, and a crust on steep solar aspects into the alpine.

  • If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Wind Slabs

Recent periods of moderate wind have potentially built wind slabs in immediate lees. Keep an eye out for these as you transition into exposed alpine terrain.

  • Use caution in lee and cross-loaded areas. Recent wind loading has created new wind slabs.
  • If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2