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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 18th, 2019–Dec 19th, 2019
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high

Regions: Glacier.

Another good day for conservative terrain choices! We are in a extended period of elevated hazard, the snowpack will need more time to settle and stabilize.

Weather Forecast

Snow easing to flurries today, temperatures in the alpine should hover around -6, and winds are forecasted to stay light to moderate from the South. Flurries continue overnight into Thursday, with accumulations up to 7cm. The main weather story is Friday/Saturday, each day receiving a foot of snow, strong winds and rising temperatures!

Snowpack Summary

50-60cm of new snow now buries the Dec 11 surface hoar layer. New snow, Moderate winds built storm slabs at all elevations. The Nov 23rd surface hoar/crust/facet combo is down +/-100cm (SH is most prevalent in sheltered treeline locations) but has become increasingly stubborn in testing. The mid-lower snowpack is settled and strong.

Avalanche Summary

Yesterday's natural avalanche cycle tapered off slightly last evening. The cycle produced avalanches to size 3-3.5 traveling far and fast, reaching valley bottom and dusting up-tracks and the road. The number of natural avalanches will decrease compared to yesterday; however, the size and destructive potential has increased with the added load!

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs are primed for human-triggering on steep unsupported terrain features. Storm slabs overlie the Dec 11th surface hoar layer, which can be found 50-60cm below the surface.

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs on exposed lee slopes at and above treeline.
  • Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Dry

Surface snow will be prone to sluffing, especially on steep, unsupported terrain features. Sluffs are running fast and far, picking up more snow as it flows down gullies.

  • Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs.
  • Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain, particularly where the debris flows into terrain traps.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2