Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 18th, 2019–Nov 19th, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

The Winter Permit System will be in affect Wednesday, November 20th. Permits are required to enter Winter Restricted Areas.

Weather Forecast

Today: Unsettled weather between systems. Mainly cloudy with flurries. Treeline temp: High -3 °C. Ridge wind light SW.  Fzl 1600m Tonight: A system passing just south of us will bring flurries (5-10cm). Treeline temp: low -5 °C. Light ridge wind.  Fzl 1200m. A ridge of high pressure Tues will bring clearing skies, cooler temps, and northerly winds.

Snowpack Summary

35-50cm of new storm snow overlies an early season snowpack, complete with a series of melt-freeze crusts throughout the height of snow. Moderate SW winds and mild temps have created a storm slab in alpine and tree-line lee features. These slabs, which sit atop a melt-freeze crust, are reported to be easily triggered by human loading.

Avalanche Summary

The weekend storm brought a decent, early-season avalanche cycle. Human-triggered avalanches to size 2 were reported from the Asulkan Hut area. Numerous natural avalanches to size 2.5-3 were observed from Tupper, Macdonald, and Cheops.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Warm temps, up to 50cm of new snow, and moderate SW winds have created a reactive storm slab. This sits atop a melt-freeze crust, which is an ideal sliding layer for this avalanche problem.

  • Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.
  • The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5